Country Risk in an Uncertain World
European Straights, 2020-07-13
This one will be short, but thought-provoking.
Hong Kong Under the Chinese Rule
Doing business in China has always been very hard and connections were mandatory
Hong Kong is no longer the gateway into Mainland China
The world is not flat, it’s an illusion of people living in the US, Western Europe, Japan, maybe China - where there’s support from investment banks.
China will not back down, the new laws are here to stay.
If Hong Kong becomes part of the Great Firewall —> very hard to do business, and English as a language may be eliminated at least in apps in favour of Mandarin.
Not very obvious why after the protests Hong Kong should stay the financial powerhouse and not, say, Shenzhen or Shanghai.
o Also, the current events are not news for people with money.
Hong Kong is the 3rd casualty of the Great Fragmentation (after UK and US)
Uncertainty runs the world now.
o If you can’t accept it as an investor, you’re stuck with your domestic market + some marginal ones.
o Local intelligence becomes very valuable (vs articles in WSJ).
o Cooperation in intelligence is the way to get it ahead of others.
See also: The Retreat of Globalization